Every war is different and requires its own unique solution, but there are
Three Basic Ingredients
Underlying Causes vs Symptoms
Normal efforts to end wars focus on symptoms rather than the underlying causes.
We focus on underlying causes rather than symptoms.
Wars don’t end without Behavior Change.
If one side wins, it forces behavior change on the losers.
If a war drags on, politicians and diplomats focus on ending the fighting and resolving political
differences, but without mechanisms to bring about behavior change, the conflict will continue.
Solutions that achieve behavior change without fighting a war are far more effective, far
cheaper, less risky, and can achieve real commitment rather than forced compliance. Strong
deterrence plays an important role.
Most decisions to start a war are based on predictions that prove to be wrong.
Solutions for ending or avoiding wars require sound predictions – conflicts can never be solved
based on predictions that are wrong.